CONCACAF and the World Cup: A Foreign Journey for Most

Below are CONCACAF World Cup qualifying percentages. I took ELO ratings, which are noticeably different than FIFA's, and put the difference in rating on a bell curve to find advancement percentages. For example, if the US played Aruba, the different in ELO rating is +862 (or -862 from Aruba's perspective). These numbers are, admittedly, a total eyeball guess. 

ELO point difference - chance of winning
+500 - .977
+400 - .945
+300 - .885
+200 - .788
+100 - .655

There are two sections. The top section is percent chance a nation will finish in the top four teams, essentially qualifying for the World Cup. (The fourth placed team will be in playoff match with another continent's nation. So that team still has another hurdle to clear but I didn't know how to change the percentages to reflect that.)

The second section is percent change the nation will leave the round. This is mainly centered around the minnows, since their World Cup chances are <.1%.

The other CONCACAF-related Google doc is a look at youth tournaments for CONCACAF play. I went back and ranked each team 1-to-however many teams there were that year. There were tournaments before 2004 but I haven't done those and most likely never will.

color code
Green - Qualified for World Cup or Olympics
Purple - Did not participate in qualifying tournament
Orange - North America
Yellow - Central America
Red - Caribbean Zone

The blue columns count how many times the nation has finished in the top 10 and their overall finishing rank. The second section is the nation's performance at the World Cup or Olympics.