Projecting the Top 100 American Goalkeepers for the 2022 World Cup

cover photo belongs to the Denver Post

Back in 2015, Everybody Soccer predicted the 2018 depth chart for American goalkeeping. For predictions three years out, they did about as well as you would expect. Reviewing the predictions, there were some significant errors.

Predicting an aging goalkeeper's descent is anyone's best guess. Josh Wicks and Jon Busch were great examples of more goalkeepers who proved they had more gas in the tank than expected. Nick Rimando was also much too low on the list. As for young goalkeepers, they were largely underrated. Steffen and Horvath were far too low and are already in the national team picture while Kempin, McMath and Meara were too high. Overall, most of the names were in the right room, but it was the order that was the issue.

For the 2022 projections, the first hurdle is drawing a line on who will and won't be retired. Goalkeepers can certainly have longer careers, but currently MLS only has three goalkeepers over 35 years old. It's unlikely many will play that long but Brad Guzan and Tim Melia have the inside track at the moment. Hopefully Stefan Frei (36 by the 2022 World Cup), Steve Clark (36), and Bobby Shuttleworth (35) will all still be playing but it'll require a strong commitment from them to stay in the game. And of course there will likely be a young hotshot who is 15 or 16 right now, but will be training with a top club by the time they turn 20 or 21. Perhaps Nicolas Defreitas-Hansen at Everton or Quantrell Jones?

Many people are claiming the goalkeeper position for the USMNT is absent of any meaningful competition heading towards 2022. On the contrary, there are a number of outstanding prospects that are on pace to challenge for the number one spot. It could conceivably be the tightest goalkeeping competition the USMNT has ever witnessed with no clear standout but a number of quality goalkeepers vying for minutes.

Understanding that five years is a long time and anything can happen between now and then, here are 100 American goalkeepers to keep an eye out over the next five years.

1. Ethan Horvath, 27 - Club Brugge (Belgium.1)
2. Abraham Romero, 24 - Pachuca (Mexico.1)
3. Zack Steffen, 27 - Columbus Crew (USA.1)
4. Eric Lopez, 23 - Los Angeles Galaxy II (USA.3)
5. Jeff Caldwell, 26 - Virginia (USA.N)
6. Brandon Austin, 23 - Tottenham (England.1)
7. Ben Lundgaard, 26 - Virginia Tech (USA.N)
8. JT Marcinkowski, 25 - Georgetown (USA.N)
9. Tim Melia, 35 - Sporting Kansas City (USA.1)
10. Will Pulisic, 24 - Duke (USA.N)

Bill says: Of any American goalkeeper, Horvath is easily playing at the highest level and the dividends are sure to pay off. Romero will likely end up getting cap-tied with Mexico, but for the moment he's still available for the USMNT, barring a one-time switch to play for the US. Caldwell, Lundgaard, Marcinkowski, and Pulisic lead a very strong collegiate group and are already ready to report to duty.

11. Eric Klenofsky, 27 - DC United (USA.1)
12. Jesse Gonzalez, 27 - FC Dallas (USA.1)
13. Bill Hamid, 31 - DC United (USA.1)
14. Jon Kempin, 29 - Los Angeles Galaxy (USA.1)
15. Joe Bendik, 33 - Orlando City SC (USA.1)
16. John McCarthy, 30 - Philadelphia Union (USA.1)
17. Brendan Moore, 30 - Rochdale (England.3)
18. Paul Christensen, 26 - University of Portland (USA.N)
19. Brad Guzan, 37 - Atlanta United (USA.1)
20. Cody Cropper, 29 - New England Revolution (USA.1)

Bill says: With all the instability in LA and DC, Kempin and Klenofsky are in great positions to take over their respective MLS sides in the next year or two. It sounds like Bill Hamid isn't re-signing with DC United and is headed towards Europe for 2018. Unfortunately he'll be on the wrong side of 30 by the time the next cycle comes around. Of course any goalkeeper can play at 31, but it's a little more of an uphill climb, especially for a goalkeeper who has struggled to stay healthy. Brendan Moore has yet to be a part of a winning team overseas but he's always been a commanding force in the box and it's why he's finding work in England.

21. Richard Sanchez, 28 - Chicago Fire (USA.1)
22. Alex Bono, 28 - Toronto FC (USA.1)
23. Adam Grinwis, 30 - St. Louis FC (USA.3)
24. Tyler Miller, 29 - Seattle Sounders (USA.3)
25. Bobby Edwards, 26 - Monmouth (USA.N)
26. Wade Hamilton, 27 - Portland Timbers II (USA.3)
27. Parker Siegfried, 25 - Ohio State (USA.N)
28. Zac MacMath, 30 - Colorado Rapids (USA.1)
29. Charlie Lyon, 30 - OC Blues FC (USA.3)
30. Spencer Richey, 30 - Vancouver Whitecaps (USA.1)

Bill says: It'll be an odd world where Zac MacMath isn't a young goalkeeper in MLS but 2022 will be just that. Alex Bono bounced back from a mediocre 2016 for a strong showing this year, getting the bulk of starting time in Toronto FC's historic run. With rumors that David Ousted isn't returning to Vancouver next year, Richey will throw his name into the hat for the starting spot in 2018. Lyon's lateral mobility makes him an interesting prospect moving forward and Richard Sanchez resurfaced in MLS this season, already owning a win under his belt.

31. Matt Bersano, 29 - San Jose Earthquakes (USA.1)
32. Todd Morton, 26 - Delaware (USA.N)
33. David Greczek, 27 - Sporting Kansas City (USA.1)
34. Kevin Silva, 24 - UCLA (USA.N)
35. Evan Louro, 26 - New York Red Bulls II (USA.3)
36. Ryan Meara, 31 - New York Red Bulls (USA.1)
37. Earl Edwards, 30 - Orlando City SC (USA.1)
38. Paul Blanchette, 28 - PEPO Lappeenranta (Finland.3)
39. Kyle Dal Santo, 27 - SIUE (USA.N)
40. Cody Mizell, 30 - Charlotte Independence (USA.3)

Bill says: The once heralded Ryan Meara could easily lose favor to up-and-coming goalkeeper Evan Louro, who skipped his last year at Michigan to pursue a career with RBNY. Blanchette has quietly earned 18 starts for third place PEPO. While Morton and Dal Santo are a little off the radar at the moment, they both possess the size and speed to excel at the next level, even if they don't hear their names called next SuperDraft. Kevin Silva is finishing his sophomore season with UCLA but don't expect him to stay all four years. He has the talent and prestige to follow in Louro's footsteps. And perhaps in 2022, FIFA will bump up Bersano's speed rating.

41. Benjamin Machini, 25 - RCD Mallorca (Spain.3)
42. Trevor Spangenberg, 31 - Puerto Rico FC (USA.2)
43. Brad Stuver, 31 - Columbus Crew (USA.1)
44. Travis Worra, 29 - DC United (USA.1)
45. Logan Ketterer, 28 - Columbus Crew (USA.1)
46. Adrian Zendejas, 26 - Sporting Kansas City (USA.1)
47. David Bingham, 32 - San Jose Earthquakes (USA.1)
48. Tyler Deric, 33 - Houston Dynamo (USA.1)
49. Brian Sylvestre, 29 - North Carolina FC (USA.3)
50. Andrew Tarbell, 28 - San Jose Earthquakes (USA.1)

Bill says: While the NASL may not be around by 2022, Spangenberg should be able to build off his strong performances with Puerto Rico to continue to compete for a starting spot somewhere. Similarly, Sylvestre has made positive strides with North Carolina FC and has past experiences in MLS that he may be able to build off of. Tarbell has played ten straight games for San Jose and is the frontrunner to start the 2018 season for the Earthquakes. With Deric's game built so much on his explosive reactions, it'll be interesting to see how he fares in his later years.

51. Bill Heavner, 28 - MLS Pool (USA.1)
52. Jake McGuire, 27 - Philadelphia Union (USA.1)
53. Jonathan Klinsmann, 25 - Hertha BSC (Germany.1)
54. Justin vom Steeg, 25 - Los Angeles Galaxy II (USA.3)
55. Tomas Gomez, 29 - Rochester Rhinos (USA.3)
56. Matt Turner, 28 - New England Revolution (USA.1)
57. Austin Rogers, 26 - FC Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia.1)
58. Sean Johnson, 33 - New York City FC (USA.1)
59. Eric Dick, 27 - Butler (USA.N)
60. Elliott Rubio, 25 - Utah Valley (USA.N)

Bill says: Vom Steeg has recently returned to California from playing abroad and LAG2 put him in goal quick, already earning four starts in the last month. Klinsmann is doing well to already be making inroads with Hertha Berlin. Rogers is taking an unconventional route by playing in Mongolia but he looks like he's getting his money's worth in the Eastern Hemisphere. Gomez has recently become a back-to-back USL Golden Glove winner.

61. Alec Kann, 31 - Atlanta United (USA.1)
62. Connor Sparrow, 28 - Real Salt Lake (USA.1)
63. Carlos dos Santos, 21 - Benfica (Portugal.1)
64. Nick Gardner, 26 - Denver (USA.N)
65. Matthew Jegier, 26 - Elon (USA.N)
66. Jimmy Hague, 27 - Michigan State (USA.N)
67. Michael Nelson, 27 - SMU (USA.N)
68. Bennett Sneddon, 25 - Los Angeles Galaxy II (USA.3)
69. Ryan Cretens, 26 - UNC Wilmington (USA.N)
70. Tim Dobrowolski, 28 - Louisville City FC (USA.3)

Bill says: Admittedly dos Santos is a bit of an surprise pick as he's currently the backup to the U17s. However it's hard not to see shades of David de Gea when you see the young Philadelphian move in goal. Dobrowolski played only two games in 2016 but did well to concede just 11 goals in his 12 appearances with Louisville this year. Garner continues to build off of last year's Goalkeeper of the Year performance in his conference, currently holding a .91 GAA. Young Galaxy goalkeeper Bennett Sneddon has room to grow but the twenty year old is developing well against USL competition.

71. Ben Hale, 24 - Furman (USA.N)
72. Andrew Putna, 27 - Real Monarchs (USA.1)
73. Andrew Shepherd, 27 - Western Michigan (USA.N)
74. Mason Stajduhar, 24 - Orlando City SC (USA.1)
75. Drake Callender, 24 - California (USA.N)
76. Trey Mitchell, 31 - Pittsburgh Riverhounds (USA.3)
77. Kris Devaux, 31 - Bryne FK (Norway.2)
78. Matt Lampson, 32 - Chicago Fire (USA.1)
79. Evan Finney, 27 - Penn State (USA.N)
80. Joe Willis, 33 - Houston Dynamo (USA.1)

Bill says: Hale had a wonderful start to the season, being named TopDrawerSoccer's national player of the week back in early September. Shepherd assisted the Michigan Bucks' US Open Cup run this spring, topping Indy Eleven to reach the third round. Mason Stajduhar is still searching for his first professional cap but he already has good experience with the U20s. Willis and Lampson will probably hold backup roles by 2022 but their consistency will be the main reason why they'll likely still be playing into their 30s.

81. William Yarbrough, 33 - Leon (Mexico.1)
82. Collin Partee, 27 - Loyola Marymount (USA.N)
83. Drew Romig, 24 - North Carolina (USA.N)
84. Josh Cohen, 29 - Phoenix Rising (USA.3)
85. Keith Cardona, 29 - Indy Eleven (USA.2)
86. Kyle Morton, 28 - Rochester Rhinos (USA.3)
87. Mike Lansing, 28 - Aalborg BK (Denmark.1)
88. Jimmy Slayton, 24 - Hartford (USA.N)
89. Alex Kapp, 27 - Minnesota United FC (USA.3)
90. Jimmy Maurer, 34 - New York Cosmos (USA.2)

Bill says: Many people want Yarbrough to re-enter the USMNT goalkeeping scene, as he's currently sitting top five in saves and clean sheets in the Liga MX's spring season. Unfortunately he'll on the wrong side of 30 by the World Cup. Partee has an option of signing as a Timbers homegrown after this fall. Romig has split time with freshman Alec Smir and junior James Pyle, making the goalkeeper situation in Chapel Hill easily the most competitive in the country.

91. Luis Barraza, 25 - Marquette (USA.N)
92. John Berner, 31 - Colorado Rapids (USA.3)
93. Rafael Diaz, 30 - New York Red Bulls II (USA.3)
94. Kris Schultz, 29 - Canterbury United (New Zealand.1)
95. Dakota Havlick, 25 - Santa Clara (USA.N)
96. James Pyle, 26 - North Carolina (USA.N)
97. Jeff Attinella, 33 - Portland Timbers (USA.1)
98. Brian Rowe, 33 - Los Angeles Galaxy (USA.1)
99. Mark Pais, 31 - Toronto FC (USA.1)
100. Jon Busch, 45 - Indy Eleven (USA.2)

Bill says: Attinella and Rowe enter 2018 nearing, or at, their peak but they only combine for just 100 MLS appearances in their 13 seasons as a professional. (Attinella also has 52 appearances in NASL action.) Continued development is hard to come by for any goalkeeper this late into their career. Barraza has a possibility of an homegrown contract with Real Salt Lake, if the decide to go that direction with the Marquette goalkeeper. Jon Busch should be nearing 700 games played by 2022.

How Much Has MLS Helped CONCACAF Nations?

One of the big stories following the USMNT's failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup was how CONCACAF nations have caught up to the United States. Most credit the tightening gap to MLS's induction in 1996, giving the region's smaller countries a stronger platform to develop their national team players. Jamaica's head coach said earlier this summer that "MLS has done a lot for our football back in Jamaica" after they upset Mexico in their run to the Gold Cup final.

While the idea of MLS strengthening national teams seems to line up on paper, Elo ratings don't show much of an improvement in the gap between the top to the bottom. Looking at the top twelve teams in the confederation, only a handful of teams have shown significant improvement since MLS's inception in 1996.

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nation	2017 elo	1996 elo	2017 slice	1996 slice	change	highest in MLS era	lowest in MLS era
Mexico	1887	1824	10.1%	10.1%	-0.01%	1970	1645
Costa Rica	1763	1591	9.4%	8.8%	0.61%	1848	1524
United States	1741	1652	9.3%	9.1%	0.16%	1872	1629
Panama	1644	1273	8.8%	7%	1.74%	1737	1267
Honduras	1573	1509	8.4%	8.3%	0.05%	1767	1478
Jamaica	1509	1442	8.1%	8%	0.08%	1682	1444
Canada	1516	1559	8.1%	8.6%	-0.53%	1713	1471
Guatemala	1495	1439	8%	8%	0.03%	1621	1407
Haiti	1469	1293	7.8%	7.2%	0.7%	1576	1312
El Salvador	1414	1482	7.6%	8.2%	-0.65%	1568	1314
Trinidad and Tobago	1423	1523	7.6%	8.4%	-0.82%	1651	1372
Cuba	1292	1494	6.9%	8.3%	-1.36%	1613	1292

The graph shows the Elo ratings for each of the twelve listed CONCACAF nations, dating back to 1980. Most of the bottom teams have continually raised their Elo rating since not only 1980, but also 1996. Unfortunately so have the top teams. While Jamaica has raised their Elo rating from 1996 by 67 points, the jump is minimized when comparing the rest of the region's improvement.

Looking at the green-ish, blue-ish table, we can see the rise in Elo ratings per nation, as well as growth compared to the region. Columns 2017 slice and 1996 slice divide each nation's Elo rating over the rest of the region. For example, Mexico's 1887 is 10.1% of the total Elo ratings of the twelve listed teams. (Both "slice" columns add up to 100%, a whole pie.) So while Jamaica increased by 67 points over the 21 years, their "slice" only increased by .08%. Jamaica, shown in the line graph, made substantial gains prior to MLS but developed at a moderate rate after 1996. They are almost exactly positioned in CONCACAF today as they were in 1996.

As for countries who have grown since 1996, Panama (+1.74%), Haiti (+0.7%), and Costa Rica (+0.61) lead the pack but it's hard to place that all on MLS. For starters, it is such a small increase, the rise in Elo ratings could easily be put on the federation's investment in their youth system. Secondly, the current average age for Panamanians in MLS is 26.4, an age farther from development and closer to the player's final product. While MLS brags about their diversity - and for good reason - the eight Panamanians and twelve Jamaicans in the late stages of their career aren't going to revolutionize their respective senior teams.

MLS has had its successes in the past, but crediting growth of national teams isn't backed by numbers, especially considering how a number of nations have dropped off since 1996. Trinidad and Tobago was 129 points behind the US in 1996, but now are a whopping 318 below the US, and that's after their upset win in qualifying. There were 24 Canadians in MLS in 2016, but their Elo rating has suffered as well, dropping 43 points.

On the other side, Mexico's Elo rating has jumped 63 points, but how many senior caps are coming for MLS players over Liga MX? Not many. A shift in 50-100 points over two decades (4-5 points a year) can't solely be credited to a new league. MLS has surely made some impact on smaller countries, but it's likely as much as the NCAA's influence on young players, or a number of other factors that play into player development.

The Current State of Youth Soccer in America

cover photo by Gary A. Vasquez/USA Today Sports

Christopher McCollum appears as a guest writer on Everybody Soccer for his first time. Christopher is a registered USSF player agent and has contributed as a writer and analyst for a number of American sports websites, including Yanks Abroad, American Soccer Now, and Bleacher Report. Perhaps most notably, Christopher worked with SoccerViza in Player and Team Relations, where he coordinated trials, contracts for players, and managed team requests before and during transfer windows. Christopher brings years of off-the-field experience in the sport, spanning continents, professional-to-recreational environments, and all player ages. He can be reached online at @CKMcCollum.

October 10, 2017 is a day that can live in infamy for US Soccer, or a day that can be swept under the rug, forgotten, and allowed to eventually repeat itself. As the memory of the US National Team’s failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup burns at its brightest, the outrage is at a maximum. Even several days later, the hot takes on social media are coming in by the thousands; current and former players are speaking out; fans are livid; journalists and members of the media are expressing their criticism.

There have been a few attempts at early explanations of what went wrong, but truly, there can be no single or even multifaceted answer that easily explains it. It’s a complex issue that’s tied into so many layers of the American soccer system, from the grassroots level all the way up to the financial powerhouse at the top of the pyramid.

Who, or What, is to Blame?

The finger of blame can be pointed, justifiably, in several prominent directions, but most of the stereotypical scapegoats at worst can only take part of it. All of these parts add up to a big chunk of the overall problem, but they usually don’t touch upon the biggest single piece of it.

There’s partial blame to be laid at the feet of college soccer for not preparing players for the professional game. There’s partial blame to be laid at the feet of our domestic leagues for not maintaining a consistently high standard of playing environment from top to bottom. There’s partial blame to be laid at the feet of our domestic professional pyramid which limits club and player advancement by operating as closed leagues. There’s partial blame to be laid at the feet of the US scouting system which is understaffed, underpaid, and overworked. There’s partial blame to be laid at the feet of the homogeneous soccer society we live in that quietly enforces a status quo. There’s partial blame to be laid at the feet of an Old Boys Club mentality among some decision makers in agencies, teams, and leagues, who decide what makes an attractive professional prospect.

There’s a lot of blame to be laid at the feet of the corporatocracy that soccer in the United States has evolved into over the past generation, and the lack of action from the USSF to subsidize youth soccer costs allows this corporatocracy to grow in scope and influence.

The increasingly money-driven approach that businesses approach soccer with shows itself in almost every arena of the game around the world, as it does in most other sports as well, but there are distinct areas in the United States where it plays a direct role on what our National Team has looked like, currently looks like, and will look like, which differs from other comparably successful setups.

There’s an age old arguing point that the pay-to-play system is broken and drives players away from the game by limiting access to families who can afford the increasingly astronomical cost to register their sons and daughters for a season of soccer. This is true, despite Sunil Gulati saying on a recent conference call with members of the press that it is not exclusive to the United States, but these arguments rarely get into “why” the system works this way. The answer is simple on its face: Youth soccer in America is a license to print money; It pulls on the heartstrings of parents with the suggestion that comes precariously close to a promise that if their kids play in certain clubs or under certain coaches or in certain leagues, there is a college scholarship in reach.

This reinforcement of the college dream that coaches and club administrators sell to parents grows weaker every year, because it doesn’t take into account one of the fastest growing niche industries in the soccer market: International college recruitment, which brings in foreign academy or even ex-professional players on scholarships. In the 2016 season, 36% of Top Drawer Soccer’s Division I Conference Best XI rankings were imported players. This is good for the programs and good for professional soccer in America. Unfortunately, it adds a very difficult road block to an already difficult path for the typical American youth player to earn a scholarship to university, and is generally glossed over when convincing parents to open their checkbooks.

The Great Temptation

The temptation of free college education in a world where the cost of tuition is rising faster than average income is almost impossible to resist for many parents, who become happy (or at least willing) to gamble on six to eight years of $4,000 annual registration fees in order to not spend $40,000-$100,000 over four years of university costs down the road. Once it was figured out that middle to upper class parents will spare no expense to find opportunities for their kids, high price youth academies and companies began springing up all around the country.

It’s gotten to the point where coaching youth soccer in America can be one of the most lucrative jobs a person without specialized formal education can hold. With three teams of players as young as U10, a coach can easily make $45,000 per year off of them for what amounts to part time work. That number can rise to $60,000 if the coach does their schedule carefully and adds a fourth team. This is more than most professional coaches in Portugal get paid, according to AEL Limassol head coach Bruno Baltazar.

“In Portugal it is a very poor paying job to coach youth football,” Baltazar said in a recent on-record conversation, “maybe 150 or 200 euros per month. It’s done because of passion for the game. Even the professional coaches in the first division, except for Benfica, Porto, Sporting Lisbon, maybe Braga, will usually only make 40,000, maybe 50,000 per year. Less in the smaller teams, and the youth coaches make way less.”

“Youth soccer in America is a license to print money; It pulls on the heartstrings of parents with the suggestion that comes precariously close to a promise that if their kids play in certain clubs or under certain coaches or in certain leagues, there is a college scholarship in reach”

The same can be said for England, where players in small amateur clubs outside of the professional league system will pay small fees in the neighborhood of $8/week, which covers basic fees including kits, referees, and other necessities, but not coaching. The coaching there is for the love of the game. Going to a higher level in the community, but still outside of the professional academy system, this is where the English Football Foundation, funded by the FA, Premier League, and English government, has invested hundreds of millions of dollars into subsidizing costs for clubs. This keeps player registration fees nearly non-existent while bringing paid coaches into the fold with part time wages and allowing the players greater access to development and education within the game.

In Mexico, according to Queretaro FC scouting guru Mauricio Pedroza in another recent on-record conversation, players in professional youth academy setups do not pay. In the community programs there are small monthly fees that can be as high as $50 for a player depending on the location, quality of facilities and coaching, but most of the time outside of the major cities, it’s as low as $10 per month. This is done, as in England, through the coaches’ love for the game and willingness to volunteer their time and resources to help their community grow.

Even in Iceland, the smallest nation to ever qualify for the World Cup, and without a ton of financial assistance available from a large federation or large, generous tax-base, it only costs roughly $850 per year to play with one of the elite academies, such as Breidablik. This club, with one of the best development systems in Iceland, produced (or helped to produce) four players on the team that just qualified for the World Cup, including Gylfi Sigurdsson and Alfred Finnbogason, and five more who have been used this year (and sidenote for trivia buffs, Aron Johannsson for a short spell). This figure changes by age as well, so that the youngest players in the academy only pay about $140 per year. These small fees help to cover some very basic necessities such as maintenance and transportation costs, but the low prices are helped by the close involvement of clubs’ professional players having active involvement in youth coaching. For many of the younger players on the first team rosters, a stipulation in their contracts is that they dedicate a small number of hours each week to coaching at the youth academy.

The Icelandic federation’s investment into its youth over the past 15 years has paid dividends as evidenced by last year’s Euro run, and this year’s qualification for the World Cup. Even though the federation has limited resources, they devote what they can to improving the country’s sporting future. To bolster this investment, the individual clubs work with their sponsors, and use compensation awarded from successfully exported players to put back into their youth academies. This has created a machine in Reykjavik and Akureyri that sees several players a year exported into the Netherlands, England, and Denmark, with each one capable of bringing back as much as $150,000 straight away, and sell-on clauses that will keep players producing even more money for their childhood clubs as their careers progress.

But Then There’s Youth Soccer in America

This is all in contrast to American registration fees that run up to several thousand dollars per year even in community club programs, and is largely because of the increased cost of coaching wages which come with the assumption that higher paid means higher quality. This unfortunately feeds into another growing niche market in the United States which is the import of youth coaches from Great Britain; These same coaches doing the job for free in the small charity programs in London, Birmingham, Glasgow, and Manchester are brought over by companies like UK Elite who pitch their expert European services to communities bereft of knowledgeable soccer leaders, and procure lucrative contracts that pay as much as $110 per man hour for coaching kids as young as the U6 level. Keep the player:coach ratio at 10:1 for a four-day-a-week, two-hour, 60-player after school U6-U10 program, and it’s easy to see why registration fees cost as much as they do. It’s not about kit costs, it’s not about field rental, it’s not about referee fees, it’s not about insurance; The biggest financial hit to a club is the cost of coaching, and it’s not a field where you’re guaranteed to get what you pay for.

This is a major part of the underlying cause for why so many potential players, especially from minority backgrounds, are excluded from even basic community programs, let alone from the more difficult to navigate academy programs. Regardless of the difficulty of access though, there are still plenty of talented players whose parents can afford to pay the registration fees required to get their kids into programs. The United States has an estimated 30-million soccer players at all levels, and over 4-million of them are registered youth players. The mounting problem that these players then face is in the developmental side, and that is where so much is lacking, and where the evidence mounts up against the highest paid youth coaching industry in the world.

Not only are entire communities being deprived of the opportunity to play in “scouted” leagues, but those who do have access are finding it more and more difficult to find coaching quality that lives up to the expectations set forth in a club’s charter. The US Soccer coaching accreditation system is simply not an accurate gauge of a coach’s competence in the field, same as a student’s grade in school has very little applicability in the real world. Seasons are long, player personalities are diverse, and just because someone passed a test that may or may not have involved a bit of field work, doesn’t mean that they can take a team and progress with them full time.

How many USSF-produced coaches have gone on to make an international impact? The answer: Not many. We can’t generalize and say that they simply aren’t good enough - there’s certainly a case to be made for a number of coaches, such as Caleb Porter, Jason Kreis, Jesse Marsch, who are among a younger generation of coaches that will produce their own “family trees” that spread into other parts of the game. But beyond some MLS success, we’re hard pressed to find an impact beyond Bruce Arena’s 2002 World Cup campaign. And we just saw firsthand how little Arena has evolved from 2002 to 2017.

Again, it’s not to state that the US soccer coaching pool is a dumpster fire. There are a lot of good coaches working in the youth system in the United States, hailing from all over the world. Not all of them get paid high wages. Many do it for the satisfaction of being involved in the game they love. These hardworking, dedicated coaches are valuable, and worth every penny that they’re paid, or in some cases worth way more than they’re paid. These elite coaches come from every nationality and every background, but it’s naive to think that the 461 boy’s USSDA teams and the 100,000 odd other teams around the country can have access to them all. There are thousands upon thousands of parent volunteers who spend their time on their kids’ and community’s teams because of their own unique love and passion, but like with any industry where there is profit to be found, there are so many bad actors making their way into the field, claiming their piece of the pie. And for the American youth soccer pie, there are huge pieces of it available to someone clever enough to make their claim.

At the moment, there’s no accountability for clubs taking piles of money from parents believing that their kids will have a shot at college, short of bad customer reviews on Facebook. Add the Federation’s apparently adamant stance against subsidizing youth soccer costs in order to correct the market, and there is no end in sight for increased fees, under-qualified and overpaid coaches, and mediocre performances from the National Team which these programs collectively end up feeding into.

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This brings up a brief aside regarding solidarity payments and training compensation fees that MLS, backed by the Federation, will not pay out to American youth academies upon signing graduates to professional contracts. And why should they? Training compensation is meant to compensate a youth club for the annual costs that go into producing a professional quality player, multiplied by the number of years the player was with that club. It’s the payoff for a club’s investment in their players.

Some academies, such as Crossfire Premier, are involved in litigation to receive compensation for their products. In Crossfire’s case, it’s DeAndre Yedlin. If anyone has a legitimate claim to the FIFA mandated compensation models, it would be Crossfire, since they provide expense-paid DA soccer for their upper age groups, including travel costs. But not a lot of other clubs do this, and even if they do, that means raising the prices on the younger and non-elite programs they run in order to pay the expenses of the U18 elite teams. So what does this do? It once again prices out potential players when they need to be identified the most.

If the player is paying for the privilege of being part of that club though, why, indeed, should the club receive payment on top of what the parents already provided? The compensation rates based on academy categories (1 being the highest compensated per year of development, through 4 being the lowest) provided by FIFA is laughable at best, and when it comes to the United States, completely irrelevant. It’s a nasty circle of life when clubs don’t deserve training compensation because they’re not investing in players, but those clubs can’t invest in players because the Federation hasn’t provided an instrument for clubs to be rewarded with.

Training compensation fees would work for a club that steadily produces professional players. The trouble is, there’s not enough money available through compensation to offset the massive expenses that clubs run up unless they regularly produce a pro player from their U18 team every year. These costs need to be brought down in order for training compensation to make a noticeable impact (if it’s ever introduced in America at all).

In this regard, it’s the training compensation schedule that FIFA dictates that will block a U.S. club from being able to go free-to-play solely from revenues generated from graduates who go pro. The top U.S. academies are labeled Category 1 by FIFA, and are technically able to receive money for each year a player was with the club from age 12-18. It’s only a small value from age 12-15, but goes up to $30,000 per year from age 16-18. Compare that to Category 1 academies in Europe, which is about $106,000 per year from 16-18. It’s a lot easier to fund an academy when one prospect pays off every two years, compared to needing one or two prospects each year.

But Wait, There May Be a Solution

While it’s naive to think that the millions of youth players in the United States can have access to quality coaching when there are so few quality coaches, it’s also naive to think that the Federation can adequately subsidize so many programs for so many players in order to reduce the financial burden on families and to force a degree of accountability on coaches. Even with the massive amount of money that comes into the USSF every year, there’s simply not enough of it to make soccer a free-to-play sport. There may not even be enough money to adequately subsidize the DA clubs in order to provide low cost or free access to players. This is one of the inherent curses that the sport has in the U.S.; The size of the player pool guarantees that there are Christian Pulisic’s out there, but it’s also too big to adequately develop without excluding players due to their financial means. Subsidizing youth soccer could very well bankrupt the Federation.

So what’s the solution? If we need to hold youth coaches accountable in order to justify their wages, then the Federation needs to be involved in the payment of those wages through investment and subsidies. But there’s too many players, too many teams, for the Federation to invest in and subsidize. Picking and choosing which programs to receive money from the Federation in order to do away with player registration fees opens a fertile breeding ground for internal politics and favoritism which would surely doom talented players just as much as excessive costs do today. There simply isn’t an easy solution to the problem.

It’s possible that the only solution is to make coaches and clubs accountable to their parents, and this wouldn’t be through a voting system or any kind of regulatory tool. It would take capturing the best elements of the free market and allowing them to run their course; Namely, customer dissatisfaction would ultimately doom coaches and clubs.

There’s a potential fatal flaw in that solution though, and it’s the lack of a distinct soccer culture in the United States. Despite their love for their kids’ game, so many of the soccer parents in this country don’t hold a vast degree of technical or tactical knowledge of the game in order to have an idea for what player development should look like. It’s not as easy as checking report cards to see if your kid has been taught his times tables yet. Because of this, it’s always going to be difficult for parents to fact check a coach, and it will still be possible for coaches and clubs to exploit the knowledge gap.

All Hope Is Not Lost

While there’s a definite lack of a soccer culture in the United States, there doesn’t need to be one in order to provide an accountability system. The framework is already there, though the parents may not know it yet. Youth soccer representatives hold a very strong voting bloc in the USSF, and they could reasonably use that influence to form, or force the Federation to form, committees that oversee such accountability. What parents need to protect themselves and to give them the strength to hold coaches and clubs accountable is a representative force within the Federation. That force exists, it just hasn’t been engaged yet. As soon as it is, we can start putting things in order and rein in the corporatocracy that businesses have exploited parents’ dreams in order to build.

Though it’s not a grand solution to figuring out the pay-to-play system, the prospect of Federation censure that could drive away their customer base may be enough for many coaches, clubs, and companies to tighten up their coaching standards, and maybe even lower prices. And that’s a step in the right direction to getting the pay-to-play model under control, make the game more accessible, and eventually help the National Team compete for a World Cup.

Everything You Missed From American Goalkeeping Last Month

cover photo from Los Angeles Galaxy

National Team

Before the US Men's National Team gears up for their last World Cup Qualifiers, Tim Howard and Brad Guzan received some backlash over their respective performances against Costa Rica and Honduras. The two aging goalkeepers have not had much support this cycle so I wrote about what our expectations should be towards the position, assuming the team is able to make it to Russia. The USMNT play Friday (hosting Panama in Orlando) and Tuesday (away against Trinidad and Tobago) to determine their World Cup hopes.

Alyssa Naeher started both games against New Zealand, conceding only one goal in the two games on an over the top ball that slipped between defenders. It's a tricky ball as no one is sure whose responsibility it falls to. These situations are tough on any goalkeeper but if Naeher is going to charge, she has to connect with the ball. There's a right way and a wrong way to both stay home and come off the line so I won't say she definitely should have stayed on her line. However if a goalkeeper isn't sure what the play will bring, they can always get set to make the save.

Young Guns

Los Angeles Galaxy 2's goalkeepers continue to grow in prestige. After earning his first USL Save of the Week, 18-year-old Eric Lopez notched three more starts in September, bringing his yearly total to twelve. Lopez is now joined by Justin Vom Steeg, who returns abroad from Fortuna Düsseldorf's reserve team. Vom Steeg played 90 minutes against the Tulsa Roughnecks, in a 1-0 loss.

The U17 World Cup kicks off this month. Goalkeepers include likely first choice goalkeeper Justin Garces (Atlanta United), CJ dos Santos (Benfica), and Alex Budnik (Sockers FC, Arlington Heights, Illinois). The USYNT's first game is October 6th against India and finish the group against Ghana on the 9th and Colombia on the 12th.

Richard Sanchez has finally resurfaced. After a stellar U20 World Cup with Mexico in 2013, the Mexican-American goalkeeper disappeared with Tigres in Liga MX. After only five starts in three years, he returned to MLS with the Chicago Fire in August. Last month he earned his first MLS start, in a 4-1 win with some nice saves against the San Jose Earthquakes

NWSL rookie Jane Campbell made 16 starts with the Houston Dash this year, compiling a less than desirable 1.5 GAA and the Dash finishing eighth in a ten team table. Campbell hasn't been congratulated with much fanfare but she's the only USWNT goalkeeper under 29 with a cap, so there's definitely more left in the tank from the Stanford alum.

16-year-old Nicolas Defreitas-Hansen has two starts under his belt with Everton's U18s, including a recent 1-1 result against Manchester United's side. Defreitas-Hansen made a breakaway save in the first half before conceding on another 1v1 in the 61st minute.

18-year-old English-American goalkeeper Brandon Austin has made four starts with Tottenham's U23s, one with the U18s, and another match against Dortmund in the UEFA Youth League where he made a quick save to redirect a shot over the crossbar.

Qualifying for the U20 World Cup on the women's side starts in January. Frontrunners for goalkeepers to be included on the roster include Laurel Ivory (University of Virginia), Amanda McGlynn (Virginia Tech), Brooke Heinsohn (Duke), and Amanda Dennis (Penn State).

Americans Abroad

Ethan Horvath is 8-1 with Club Brugge this season and sits in first place after helping them preserve the scoreline with this fantastic save last week. (Thanks to Alex Schieferdecker for bringing this to my attention.)

Alex Horwath is unfortunately sidelined with a wrist injury after making four straight starts with SK Brann in Norway's top division, going 2-1-1 for the third placed team. If they can stay above fourth, SK Brann will make for Euorpa League qualifying next season.

UEFA Women's Champions League begins their knockout stage on October 4th. The 32 team tournament features five American goalkeepers:

• Katie Fraine, Avaldsnes vs. Barcelona
• Libby Stout, Apollon Limassol vs Linkoping
• Megan Dorsey, Sparta Praha vs PAOK
• Jillian McVicker, Olimpia Cluj vs Rosengard
• Emily Dolan, Medyk Konin vs Lyon

Brendan Moore kept back-to-back shutouts for Rochdale at the start of the month, the second one including penalty heroics to keep the score level.

Benjamin Machini was named a captain for RCD Mallorca. Machini turned 21 last month and has a Nick Rimando-esque approach to the game for those unfamiliar with the goalkeeper.

Records

Jon Busch made his 500th professional start, a professional career spanning 21 years. Busch talked about his motivation that has kept him going for so many years and hits on the goalkeeper community that he has learned from as well.

Adrianna Franch posted her 11th shutout of the season a couple weeks ago, setting a new NWSL season record. The Thorns will host the Orlando Pride on October 7th in their semifinal match.

Real Monarchs opponents were 0-for-6 in penalty attempts this season until Andrew Putna saved another to make them 0-for-7.

Creighton's Michael Kluver connected on this unbelievable volley for the rare goalkeeper assist, forcing overtime against Tulsa in the dying seconds. Creighton would go on to win the game 2-1.

90’ || 🐦1️⃣ ⛈1️⃣ || GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAL #GoJays pic.twitter.com/UJ9bsGHDqO

— Creighton Soccer (@creightonmsoc) September 20, 2017

Off the Field

Lydia Williams headed northwest in a trade with the Seattle Reign, leaving Jane Campbell as the starter in Houston. The Seattle Reign already have a strong core of goalkeepers with Haley Kopmeyer and Madalyn Scheiffel so we'll see who sticks around for the 2018 season.

Kopmeyer heads to Australia with Canberra United this winter but this isn't the first time she's played abroad during the winter break. In the 2015-16 break she played with the Brisbane Roar for twelve matches. Kopmeyer should be back in time for the 2018 NWSL season unless she has other plans for next year.

Steven Goff did a wonderful writeup on the DC United-Bill Hamid drama, including this incredble quote.

“United has agreed to Hamid’s contract requests, people familiar with the talks said, but on two occasions he had second thoughts, perhaps holding out hope of going abroad. One person said United offered to double his base salary to about $700,000 per year guaranteed over three seasons, a package that would’ve put him behind only the U.S. national team‘s Tim Howard (Colorado Rapids) and Brad Guzan (Atlanta United) among best-paid MLS goalkeepers.”

— Goff

Many have shown disproval of DC United's recent decision to sit Hamid for Steve Clark while European scouts were in the stands but Ryan Keefer brings fans back to earth with a much needed level-headed response.

David Bingham's name popped up on the MLS subreddit after his father was unhappy with San Jose's treatment of his son. There are 67 comments on it already so I'll leave the situation at that.

I'll be writing a little more on community service later this month but on September 24th Matt Lampson celebrated his ten-year anniversary of being cancer-free. John Wilkinson wrote in detail Lampson's role in the organization.

Several goalkeepers updated their online journals. Mike Lansing in Denmark told us about his recent injury. Emily Armstrong has done a great job of filling us in on life away from the field in Norway. And Everybody Soccer's three collegiate writers added to their journals earlier this month. (Congrats to Noah Heim on his first collegiate start with Marquette.)

NASL's Save of the Week from September 2nd is a real doozy.

NASL save of the week pic.twitter.com/PwGatxgT4S

— Brian Sciaretta (@BrianSciaretta) September 3, 2017